Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
